RATING CONTRADICTIONS

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Below I’ve created rating based on two different methodology. One a conventional rating based on goals and shots/corners penetration. The second set of ratings based on goals and shots using a  Markov chain methodology.  One thing is very clear the Premiership  top 6 are far better than the rest of the league. I think people can see why I backed Southampton yesterday to beat Leicester!

TEAM POWER RATING
Tottenham 1.9
Liverpool 1.9
Man City 1.5
Arsenal 1.4
Man United 1.4
Chelsea 1.2
Southampton 0.6
Everton 0.2
West Ham 0.1
Bournemouth -0.1
Stoke -0.5
Watford -0.6
West Brom -0.6
Crystal Palace -0.7
Leicester -0.8
Middlesbrough -0.9
Swansea -1.0
Burnley -1.5
Sunderland -1.7
Hull -1.8
TEAM MARKOV RATING
Chelsea 248
Man City 220
Arsenal 203
Tottenham 199
Everton 173
Liverpool 147
Man United 144
Bournemouth 87
Southampton 81
Watford 53
West Brom 52
West Ham 50
Swansea 47
Hull 46
Middlesbrough 46
Stoke 45
Crystal Palace 43
Burnley 42
Sunderland 39
Leicester 35

 

AVERAGE RACE VALUES PER TRACK 2010-2016

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TRACK AVE VAL RACES
Newmarket 1083573
Ascot 92572
Epsom Downs 61044
Epsom 32104
Goodwood 28197
Doncaster 21666
Newbury 18537
Sandown Park 17736
Chester 16330
Haydock Park 16177
Sandown 12947
Haydock 12439
Ayr 10798
Musselburgh 8781
Ripon 8396
Pontefract 7470
Salisbury 7174
Redcar 6959
Newcastle 6681
Lingfield Park 6657
Hamilton Park 6349
Thirsk 6250
Windsor 5595
Chelmsford 5537
Leicester 5362
Nottingham 5322
Carlisle 5268
Beverley 5209
Hamilton 5167
Kempton Park 5128
Ffos Las 4761
Bath 4345
Catterick 4312
Kempton 4216
Lingfield 4195
Wolverhampton 4033
Southwell 3916
Brighton 3761
Chepstow 3617

Rating Analysis for League Two

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LEAGUE TWO RATINGS HOME R AWAY R OVERALL
Portsmouth 2.4 0.6 1.5
Blackpool 1.4 0.5 0.9
Doncaster 1.0 0.4 0.7
Carlisle 0.9 0.2 0.5
Plymouth 0.3 0.5 0.4
Luton 0.6 0.1 0.3
Accrington 0.1 0.3 0.2
Grimsby 0.5 -0.1 0.2
Mansfield 1.1 -0.8 0.2
Newport County 0.2 0.0 0.1
Colchester 0.4 -0.3 0.1
Wycombe 0.7 -1.0 -0.1
Exeter -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
Barnet 0.0 -0.3 -0.2
Cambridge 0.0 -0.5 -0.2
Stevenage 0.3 -0.8 -0.2
Leyton Orient -1.0 0.5 -0.2
Crewe -0.1 -0.5 -0.3
Yeovil 0.2 -0.8 -0.3
Cheltenham 0.2 -0.9 -0.4
Notts County -0.3 -0.7 -0.5
Hartlepool -0.2 -0.8 -0.5
Crawley Town -0.7 -0.7 -0.7
Morecambe -1.7 -0.7 -1.2

 

LEAGUE TWO WINNER PROB & ODDS

No. Score Sigma Prob Fair odd
Portsmouth 1 88.137 14 32.978% 3.0
Doncaster 2 82.635 14 19.058% 5.2
Plymouth 3 80.014 14 14.317% 7.0
Carlisle 4 78.998 14 12.755% 7.8
Blackpool 5 73.816 14 6.781% 14.7
Luton 6 72.014 14 5.348% 18.7
Grimsby 7 65.978 14 2.249% 44.5
Mansfield 8 64.978 14 1.927% 51.9
Colchester 9 63.036 14 1.414% 70.7
Wycombe 10 61.105 14 1.026% 97.5
Accrington 11 59.978 14 0.846% 118.2
Barnet 12 58.118 14 0.609% 164.2
Exeter 13 55.105 14 0.349% 286.8
Newport County 14 55.036 14 0.344% 290.6

 

RELEGATION ODDS PROBABILITY No. Score Sigma Prob TO FINISH BOTTOM Fair odd REL
Morecambe 1 41.869 14 23.734% 2.38
Crawley Town 2 49.558 14 10.297% 4.81
Cheltenham 3 50.21 14 9.518% 5.16
Notts County 4 52.35 14 7.288% 6.56
Hartlepool 5 52.35 14 7.288% 6.56
Leyton Orient 6 54.118 14 5.784% 8.10
Newport 7 55.036 14 5.110% 9.07
Stevenage 8 55.118 14 5.053% 9.16
Exeter 9 56.105 14 4.408% 10.39
Barnet 10 56.118 14 4.400% 10.41
Cambridge 11 56.118 14 4.400% 10.41
Yeovil 12 56.21 14 4.343% 10.53
Colchester 13 58.036 14 3.343% 13.41
Crewe 14 58.21 14 3.259% 13.73

 

 

MARKOV CHAIN RATINGS

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Portsmouth 281
Blackpool 231
Accrington 152
Luton 149
Doncaster 127
Barnet 122
Mansfield 107
Grimsby 106
Plymouth 101
Carlisle 91
Newport County 90
Wycombe 83
Crawley Town 78
Colchester 75
Cheltenham 73
Exeter 73
Crewe 71
Yeovil 68
Hartlepool 64
Cambridge 62
Leyton Orient 62
Notts County 53
Stevenage 49
Morecambe 32

 

RATING ANALYSIS OF LEAGUE ONE

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 LEAGUE ONE HOME R AWAY R OVERALL
Sheffield United 1.5 1.3 1.4
Scunthorpe 1.2 0.8 1.0
Rochdale 1.9 -0.6 0.6
Bradford 1.5 -0.5 0.5
Charlton 0.7 0.1 0.4
Oxford 1.0 -0.2 0.4
Milton Keynes Dons 0.6 0.2 0.4
Bolton 0.7 0.1 0.4
Bristol Rvs 0.7 -0.1 0.3
Millwall 0.8 -0.4 0.2
AFC Wimbledon 0.4 -0.1 0.2
Peterboro 0.5 -0.4 0.0
Southend 0.7 -0.9 -0.1
Fleetwood Town 0.4 -0.7 -0.1
Coventry 0.0 -0.3 -0.2
Northampton 0.1 -0.7 -0.3
Gillingham 0.0 -0.5 -0.3
Swindon 0.2 -0.9 -0.3
Oldham -0.4 -0.4 -0.4
Bury 0.5 -1.3 -0.4
Chesterfield -0.5 -1.0 -0.8
Walsall -0.6 -1.4 -1.0
Port Vale -0.4 -1.6 -1.0
Shrewsbury -1.1 -1.5 -1.3
SCORE SIGMA PROB FAIR ODDS
Sheffield United 1 94.137 14 38.925% 2.6
Scunthorpe 2 92.827 14 34.584% 2.9
Bolton 3 77.514 14 6.530% 15.3
Bradford 4 77.427 14 6.457% 15.5
Rochdale 5 74.36 14 4.297% 23.3
Bristol Rvs 6 67.514 14 1.563% 64.0
AFC Wimbledon 7 66.55 14 1.340% 74.6
Charlton 8 66.514 14 1.332% 75.1
Peterboro 9 65.677 14 1.162% 86.0
Oxford 10 65.514 14 1.131% 88.4
Millwall 11 64.978 14 1.035% 96.6
Fleetwood Town 12 62.815 14 0.716% 139.7
Southend 13 61.815 14 0.600% 166.6
Milton Keynes Dons 14 58.514 14 0.328% 305.3

 

RELEGATION LEAGUE ONE

 

LEAGUE ONE SCORE SIGMAN PROB
Fair odd
Shrewsbury 1 33.602 14 32.361% 1.3
Chesterfield 2 40.835 14 15.729% 1.64
Port Vale 3 42.568 14 12.971% 1.64
Walsall 4 44.568 14 10.277% 1.99
Oldham 5 48.06 14 6.661% 2.84
Bury 6 51.06 14 4.459% 3.5
Swindon 7 51.06 14 4.459% 4.31
Coventry 8 51.899 14 3.965% 4.63
Gillingham 9 54.06 14 2.902% 5.71
Northampton 10 55.06 14 2.499% 11
Southend 11 61.815 14 0.833% 16.51
Fleetwood Town 12 62.815 14 0.699% 21.48
Peterboro 13 65.677 14 0.414% 44.09
AFC Wimbledon 14 66.55 14 0.351% 55.6

 

MARKOV RATINGS

Southend 196
Rochdale 162
Oxford 153
Sheffield United 147
Bradford 144
Scunthorpe 137
Bolton 118
Swindon 115
Millwall 113
Fleetwood Town 98
Milton Keynes Dons 98
Northampton 95
Peterboro 95
Charlton 94
Coventry 92
Bristol Rvs 88
AFC Wimbledon 81
Port Vale 78
Oldham 59
Bury 54
Gillingham 45
Shrewsbury 38
Chesterfield 35
Walsall 29

 

RATINGS ANALYSIS OF THE CHAMPIONSHIP

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CHAMPIONSHIP RATINGS
HOME R AWAY R OVERALL
Newcastle 1.3 1.2 1.3
Brighton 1.1 0.0 0.6
Derby 0.7 0.1 0.4
Fulham 0.5 0.3 0.4
Bristol City 0.6 -0.1 0.3
Brentford 0.7 -0.2 0.3
Huddersfield 1.2 -0.7 0.3
Sheffield Weds 0.9 -0.4 0.3
Aston Villa 0.8 -0.4 0.2
Reading 0.6 -0.3 0.1
Norwich 1.0 -0.8 0.1
Barnsley 0.4 -0.4 0.0
Leeds 0.1 -0.1 0.0
Wolves -0.4 0.3 0.0
Burton 0.3 -0.4 -0.1
Birmingham 0.4 -0.6 -0.1
Nott’m Forest 0.1 -0.3 -0.1
Wigan 0.6 -0.9 -0.2
Preston 0.5 -0.9 -0.2
Ipswich 0.3 -0.8 -0.3
Cardiff 0.1 -0.6 -0.3
QPR -0.4 -0.3 -0.3
Blackburn -0.2 -0.7 -0.5
Rotherham -1.3 -2.1 -1.7

 

ODDS TO WIN CHAMPIONSHIP

No. Score Sigma Prob Fair odd
Newcastle 1 97.32 14 59.466% 1.7
Brighton 2 82.646 14 15.105% 6.6
Huddersfield 3 72.515 14 4.374% 22.9
Reading 4 70.394 14 3.254% 30.7
Fulham 5 68.515 14 2.476% 40.4
Sheffield Weds 6 68.515 14 2.476% 40.4
Bristol City 7 67.515 14 2.131% 46.9
Birmingham 8 67.394 14 2.092% 47.8
Derby 9 66.515 14 1.828% 54.7
Norwich 10 66.394 14 1.794% 55.7
Brentford 11 65.515 14 1.564% 64.0
Leeds 12 65.394 14 1.534% 65.2
Aston Villa 13 63.406 14 1.112% 89.9
Barnsley 14 61.394 14 0.793% 126.1
RELEGATION CHAMPIONSHIP

 

RELEGATION CHAMPIONSHIP
No. Score Sigma Prob Fair odd
Rotherham 1 23.627 14 51.531% 1.28
Blackburn 2 41.328 14 8.717% 2.85
Wigan 3 41.491 14 8.544% 2.88
Cardiff 4 44.65 14 5.716% 3.89
Burton 5 46.081 14 4.719% 4.51
Wolves 6 46.756 14 4.303% 4.85
Nott’m Forest 7 47.371 14 3.950% 5.19
Ipswich 8 48.52 14 3.357% 5.92
QPR 9 51.1 14 2.294% 8.07
Barnsley 10 51.916 14 2.025% 8.95
Preston 11 53.101 14 1.683% 10.42
Leeds 12 57.076 14 0.874% 18.00
Norwich 13 58.366 14 0.698% 21.74
Birmingham 14 58.981 14 0.626% 23.82

 

MARKOV CHAIN BASED RATINGS

Newcastle 212
Bristol City 157
Brighton 152
Fulham 146
Sheffield Weds 137
Norwich 126
Aston Villa 120
Huddersfield 118
Burton 115
Derby 105
Birmingham 98
Barnsley 92
QPR 92
Reading 91
Brentford 86
Wolves 86
Leeds 74
Preston 72
Wigan 69
Ipswich 68
Nott’m Forest 63
Cardiff 58
Rotherham 33
Blackburn 29

LEICESTER DEFY THE ODDS AND THE RATINGS

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Of all the top flight leagues in Europe, Leicester are the team most confounding my ratings. This is across a variety of rating methods. A statistical outlier or are we missing something?

EPL
TEAM RATING
Tottenham 1.5
Man City 1.3
Liverpool 1.1
Arsenal 0.7
Chelsea 0.5
Everton 0.4
Man United 0.4
West Ham 0.2
Southampton 0.2
Leicester 0.2
Bournemouth 0.1
Stoke -0.3
Crystal Palace -0.5
Watford -0.5
Swansea -0.6
West Brom -0.7
Sunderland -0.7
Norwich -0.8
Newcastle -1
Aston Villa -1.1

FRENCH L1
TEAM OVERALL RATING
Paris SG 1.3
Lyon 1
Lille 0.3
Marseille 0.3
St Etienne 0.3
Nantes 0.2
Nice 0.2
Ajaccio GFCO 0.1
Bordeaux 0.1
Caen 0.1
Montpellier 0
Rennes 0
Monaco -0.1
Reims -0.1
Toulouse -0.1
Guingamp -0.1
Lorient -0.2
Angers -0.2
Bastia -0.5
Troyes -1.2

BUNDESLIGA
TEAM OVERALL RATING
Bayern Munich 2.7
Dortmund 1.5
Leverkusen 0.8
Wolfsburg 0.7
Stuttgart 0.3
M’gladbach 0.1
Schalke 04 0.1
Ingolstadt -0.1
Hertha -0.2
Ein Frankfurt -0.3
FC Koln -0.4
Mainz -0.5
Hamburg -0.5
Werder Bremen -0.6
Augsburg -0.6
Hoffenheim -0.9
Darmstadt -1
Hannover -1.4

SERIE A
TEAM OVERALL RATING
Juventus 1.7
Napoli 1.7
Fiorentina 1.1
Roma 1
Milan 0.7
Lazio 0.5
Inter 0.3
Torino 0.1
Sassuolo -0.1
Empoli -0.1
Atalanta -0.2
Genoa -0.3
Bologna -0.5
Udinese -0.5
Sampdoria -0.6
Carpi -0.7
Chievo -0.8
Verona -0.8
Palermo -1.1
Frosinone -1.4

PRIMERA
TEAM OVERALL RATING
Real Madrid 1.3
Barcelona 1.1
Ath Madrid 0.8
Ath Bilbao 0.4
Sociedad 0.1
Malaga 0.1
La Coruna 0
Vallecano -0.2
Eibar -0.2
Sevilla -0.3
Celta -0.3
Betis -0.4
Villarreal -0.5
Las Palmas -0.5
Granada -0.5
Espanol -0.5
Levante -0.5
Valencia -0.6
Sp Gijon -0.6
Getafe -0.8